Zenith Energy as a Possible Investment - Svendsen Tech
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Zenith Energy as a Possible Investment
Initial date of publishing: 2022-01-31.
Here is a brief summary of pros and cons for the stock Zenith Energy Ltd. "Zenith Energy"/ZENA on Oslo Stock Exchange (OSE / Oslo Børs) and the London Stock Exchange. One of the (former?) board members is Norwegian, hence the reason why it's on OSE.
Friendly tip: Don't put in more than you can afford to lose. This post comes with a big WARNING sign attached.
Cons
- The stock is subject to attention from a circle of investors, making it potentially behave extra irrationally. "Stupid investors". This stock is currently not ruled by "smart money".
- Quite frequent share issues that water out the stock. (Norwegian: "emisjon".)
- Low liquidity.
- High volatility.
- Questionable morals in the leadership.
- Very high risk.
- Irrational behavior in the stock.
- The stock is subject to heavy speculation.
- You can lose most, or all, of your money.
- They operate in Africa (Tunisia and the Republic of the Congo) with the increased risk this continent typically represents. Conditions and terms are not necessarily always orderly.
- They still have not acquired a license in the Republic of the Congo. No oil there yet. It has been pending for a year and a half.
- The Tunisian government is taking long (years) to decide/approve licenses and purchases of (parts of) fields.
- They have some risky plans in Nigeria. A quite mismanaged African country.
- This is both a pro and a con: It's a penny stock.
Pros
- The stock is potentially undervalued, has a bad reputation, and is somewhat ridiculed. You can argue that there's an "upside" in the stock.
- Their production cost for one barrel of oil is about 20 USD. Oil price at the time of writing is well over 80 USD, meaning a 60+ USD margin.
- A pessimistic estimate is that they produce about 500 barrels per day, a little more, based on their reports. This means they have started to make money. $60 * 500 = 30,000 USD per day, simplifying grossly. Based on weekly production numbers from Tunisia, the average for 1 year is 539 barrels a day. You should know: According to the CEO, they need to "fill a ship" before they sell, so the oil price at any given moment is not relevant.
- They make steady, good money from gas in Italy. With gas prices as of January 2022, this is very good business at the moment. The last 4 months, Zenith has made in excess of 200,000 Euro per month, net.
- Their CEO, Mr. Andrea Cattaneo Della Volta Cattaneo Adomo, appears to have many connections around the globe, facilitating making deals and getting funding.
- Share issues appear to be for reasons, such as developing the company and investing in growth. Plus, investors have backed up the subscriptions of new shares / share issues. The last share issues were backed by Norwegian and British investors.
- Potentially high rewards.
- They have actual production and sales of oil barrels. They are making money today.
- Possibly an unrealized potential for growth from the current 168 million NOK (Norwegian kroner) in market cap value.
- If Zenith acquires the license in the Republic of the Congo, they will potentially increase production with somewhere around 1000-5000 barrels over time. This is more speculative, but acquiring the Congo license would be good news for Zenith.
- On October 25, 2021, Zenith announced that they successfully drilled in a location where nothing had happened since 2012. This increased production from about 80 to 120 barrels. The management is hoping for about 20 % higher production by performing similar "workover" drillings.
- This is both a pro and a con: It's a penny stock.
General Considerations/Facts
Zenith Energy owns shares of fields. The fields' total production of oil barrels is higher than that which Zenith manages.
Zenith Energy is planning to purchase 22.5 % of an oil field in Tunisia (Sidi El Kilani), but the Tunisian government has spent 1.5 years without yet having approved the purchase.
Zenith currently owns 22.5 % of the Sidi El Kilani field through another company that they bought shares in, which is now a daughter company of Zenith Energy. The Tunisian government did not allow a direct purchase of shares of the oil field, so Zenith Energy bought the owner company.
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